Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Areas affected...portions of western New York into northern
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 160035Z - 160230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity may increase across
portions of western New York into northern Pennsylvania through the
evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main
threats. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the
need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation has been underway over the past
hour across Genesee/Livingston County, NY, along the eastern fringes
of a low-level WAA regime. Despite the presence of large-scale upper
ridging, latest water vapor imagery and mesoanalysis depict a small
500 mb vort max across southern Ontario cresting the ridge and
ejecting into the Upper Hudson Valley, likely serving as the main
dynamic forcing mechanism for convective initiation. It is possible
that storm coverage and intensity may increase through the evening
hours. If so, ample buoyancy is in place, with up to 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE (and minimal MLCINH) driven by 70 F surface dewpoints beneath
7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. Lower 80s F surface temperatures
suggest that the boundary layer is still mixed enough to support a
damaging gust threat over the next few hours with any of the more
intense storms that can develop/beco*e sustained. RAP forecast
soundings show modestly curved low-level hodorgraphs, with up to 200
m2/s2 effective SRH. When also considering the modest mid-level
lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear, transient
supercell structures may develop and an instance or two of severe
hail cannot be ruled out.

Since upper support and overall deep-layer ascent is expected to
remain modest, questions remain regarding how widespread the severe
threat could beco*e. Conditions are being monitored for the need of
a WW issuance pending an upward trend in observed storm coverage.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   42947890 43217838 43217791 42657724 41967703 41447701
            41087733 41157799 41457858 42317900 42947890