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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN KANSAS...ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from the
central Great Lakes, Midwest, into eastern Kansas. Scattered severe
will also occur across central/southern Alabama and the
northern/central middle Atlantic.

...01z Update...

Fairly organized corridor of frontal convection has progressed
across much of WI and will soon spread across Lake MI into northern
lower MI. Damaging winds/hail threat will continue along the leading
edge of this squall line. Farther southwest, convection is
considerably more scattered, but robust nonetheless extending along
the frontal zone across northwestern IL-northern MO-eastern KS. Both
DVN and TOP exhibited steep lapse rates with strong deep-layer bulk
shear for supercells. TOP sounding appeared particularly favorable
for severe hail production this evening, hence the southwestward
extension of the SLGT Risk into this region of KS.

Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms that developed over GA have
propagated west into eastern portions of AL early this evening. This
activity is gradually growing into a larger cluster that should
progress west-southwest across central/southern portions of AL this
evening. BMX sounding was seasonally moist with PW values around 2
inches and adequate shear for maintaining organized southwestward
moving clusters. Damaging downbursts along with some hail threat
continues.

Warm-advection corridor has established itself across NY/PA into MD
early this evening. Western portions of this zone are quite unstable
with MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. 00z sounding from BUF exhibited
4300 J/kg SBCAPE with ample deep-layer flow for at least multicell
updrafts. Isolated thunderstorms have recently developed southwest
of ROC and given the buoyancy observed this activity will likely
continue to expand as it propagates southeast. Have expanded the
SLGT Risk along the instability gradient for an increase in this
activity and the possibility that it spreads toward northern MD
later tonight.

..Darrow.. 06/16/2022