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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday across parts
of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. Damaging winds should be the main
threat, but a couple of tornadoes and hail may also occur. 
Strong/severe storms posing mainly a damaging wind risk are also
expected over an area centered over the Lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
As an upper low moving southward over the far eastern Pacific
remains just off the West Coast, a second low will move across
Ontario and into Quebec Thursday.  South of this low,
troughing/cyclonic flow will shift eastward across the Great Lakes
and into the Northeast, suppressing the prevailing long-wave ridging
affecting the eastern two-thirds of the country.

At the surface, a weakening cold front is forecast to move
eastward/southeastward across eastern and central portions of the
country, focusing clusters of convection through the period.

...The Northeast...
As rather vigorous upper short-wave troughing crests/flattens the
ridge over the Northeast, increasing ascent co*bined with the
favorably moist/destabilizing airmass suggests afternoon development
of thunderstorms -- largely near the higher terrain of the
Appalachians initially.  Storms should rapidly grow upscale, and
move quickly east-southeastward within a kinematic environment
featuring strong/quasi-unidirectional west-northwesterly winds with
height.  

Given the strength of the flow acco*panying the vigorous upper
system, and the available instability that is anticipated,
relatively widespread damaging winds emanating from a fast-moving
band or bands of convection seems likely.  As such, an upgrade to
30% wind/ENH categorical risk is being included in this outlook.

Model guidance is exhibiting substantial uncertainty with respect to
evolution of convection, moving into the evening/overnight hours. 
Therefore, uncertainty prevails with the eastern and particularly
the southern/southeastern fringes of the outlook area, given various
model solutions showing a range of deviant MCS propagation as
convection matures.  Adjustments to the areal outlook will likely be
required in later updates.

...Lower Missouri Valley vicinity...
Late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm development is expected in
the vicinity of the trailing, west-to-east portion of the cold front
crossing the Northeast, which should extend across the northern
Kansas/northern Missouri/central Illinois vicinity around sunset.  A
moist low-level airmass near and south of this boundary will heat
through the afternoon, but expect warm-sector capping to hinder
development south of the boundary.  Storms are instead expected to
initiate just to the cool side of the front, with coverage to
gradually increase in tandem with southerly low-level jet
development.  With this area on the southern fringe of the stronger
west-northwesterly flow aloft, upscale evolution into one or more
east-southeastward-moving clusters suggests potential for a zone of
damaging wind potential.  While numerical output -- both CAM and
parameterized models -- exhibit uncertainty with respect to
spatial/temporal evolution overnight, anticipated coverage of wind
risk appears to warrant upgrade to SLGT risk.

..Goss.. 06/15/2022