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Mesoscale Discussion 1170
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Areas affected...Parts of NE and western IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 150146Z - 150415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk should expand north-northeastward into NE
and western IA into the overnight hours. Large hail and damaging
gusts will be the main concerns, and a watch may eventually be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations show a quasi-stationary
frontal boundary draped across far southern NE into western IA.
Regional VWP data shows strengthening flow in the 1-3-km layer,
resulting in strengthening isentropic ascent over the surface
boundary. This is evident in visible satellite imagery, which shows
an expanding stratocumulus field north of the frontal boundary over
southern NE into western IA. As this moistening continues,
increasing elevated buoyancy amid the warm advection regime should
favor convective development north of the boundary from southern NE
northeastward into western IA. Isolated convective initiation is
already beco*ing evident over south/central NE. 

As initially elevated convection develops northward into a region of
stronger midlevel southwesterly flow, 60-70+ kt of effective bulk
shear could yield embedded supercell structures capable of sporadic
large hail -- aided by steep midlevel lapse rates (per OAX/DVN 00Z
soundings). With time, convective clustering/upscale growth should
occur owing to front-parallel deep-layer flow/shear, and damaging
gusts could beco*e an increasing concern. A watch could eventually
be needed for this activity.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40389750 39999867 39709947 39930002 40470020 41179994
            41609898 42159764 42739589 42979490 42969410 41999356
            41349386 41049499 40849596 40389750