Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across parts of the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest, with large hail and damaging
gusts the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid-level trough will continue to gradually overspread
the Plains states tonight, with surface lee troughing and an
associated cold front draped across the Upper Mississippi Valley,
trailing into the central Plains States. Along the cold front,
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
through the night. Meanwhile, a few stronger thunderstorms will
meander across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwest Texas
through the mid evening hours, before diminishing with the onset of
nocturnal cooling.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A pair of supercell thunderstorms persists across portions of
central KS along the cold front, with MRMS mosaic radar MESH data
indicating near 2 inch diameter hail falling from these storms.
Given an expected increase in low-level jet intensity tonight, these
supercells should persist for at least a few more hours, with
additional strong/severe storms developing into the evening hours. 
A 40+ kt southerly low-level jet overspread by modest
west-southwesterly 500 mb flow will result in substantial low to
mid-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with up to 50 kts of
effective bulk shear overspreading the cold front. With the
aforementioned effective bulk shear vectors aligned roughly parallel
with the cold front, a mix of transient supercells and small bowing
segments are likely in larger-scale linear co*plexes that will track
north of the cold front this evening and tonight in the central
Plains into the Upper Midwest. Given the presence of 3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE and the presence of 8.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (per
regional 00Z observed soundings), large hail (including an instance
of 2+ inch stones) is possible with any more established storm that
develops along the cold front. Damaging gusts may also occur with
the longer-lived bowing segments and a 65+ kt gust cannot be
co*pletely ruled out.

...Southwest Texas...
A couple of stronger storms have organized across southwest TX in
the past couple of hours, with a couple of 50+ kt gusts recently
noted. However, storms are expected to gradually weaken after
sunset. Given the localized and brief nature of the residual severe
wind threat, categorical delineations have been withheld.

..Squitieri.. 06/15/2022