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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
THE WISCONSIN VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday across parts
of the Upper Midwest into Upper Michigan. Several tornadoes, large
to very large hail, and damaging winds all appear likely. Some of
the tornadoes could be strong.

...Synopsis...
While ridging aloft is forecast to prevail over the eastern U.S., an
upper low is forecast to shift northeastward across southern
portions of the Canadian Prairie Wednesday, with troughing to the
south of this low forecast to cross the central/northern  Plains. 
In the West, a second upper low is forecast to begin approaching the
Pacific Northwest later in the period.

At the surface, a cold front -- trailing from a deeply occluded low
over the Canadian Prairie -- is forecast to move
eastward/southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes/Mid Mississippi
Valley/central Plains through the period.

...Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley...
Though the scenario will likely be affected to some degree by
ongoing convection near western fringes of the outlook area, a
fairly substantial severe-weather event is forecast to unfold across
the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region.  As the cold
front moves slowly eastward/southeastward across the area, a weak
frontal low is forecast to develop during the day over the Iowa
vicinity, as a lobe of vorticity rotates eastward across the
northern/central Plains south of the main upper low.  With low-level
flow that would remain easterly/southeasterly northeast of such a
frontal low, very favorable shear -- both low-level and deep-layer
-- would reside across the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon
ahead of the cold front.

Given a very moist/strongly unstable afternoon warm sector, storms
redeveloping across this area would likely beco*e quickly
supercellular.  Given the aforementioned/favorable shear northeast
of the anticipated frontal low, risk for tornadoes -- including one
or more that could be strong -- can be expected.  Very large hail
would also be possible with evolving supercells, as well as damaging
winds.

Damaging wind potential will likely increase into the evening, as
storms grow upscale into a bowing MCS, aided by strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow aloft.  With likelihood that such an MCS would
spread across Upper Michigan, and across Lake Michigan into northern
portions of the Lower Peninsula, an expansion of SLGT risk
eastward/northeastward is being included in this outlook.

...The Southeast...
Models hint that a series of weak, southwestward/westward-moving
mid-level vorticity maxima will shift across the Southeast, on the
southern periphery of the upper ridge, forecast to be centered over
the Mid South.  With moderate-magnitude, roughly unidirectional
west-southwesterly flow aloft across the region, one or more
clusters of forward-propagating storms seem likely to evolve, with
CAM runs generally hinting at such a scenario.  Storms will likely
evolve in the vicinity of the southern Appalachians, and near the
Florida west-coast sea-breeze, and then shift westward across the
Southeast and eastern Gulf.  Along with some potential for hail, the
main severe risk would likely be damaging wind gusts.  Storms may
continue well into the evening, and possibly lingering into the
overnight hours.

...Lower Great Lakes to the Carolinas...
With ridging aloft -- and thus large-scale subsidence -- to prevail
across the area, thunderstorm coverage will likely remain limited,
and largely tied to remnant MCVs.  Thus, substantial uncertainty
exists as to timing and location of convection, or any possible
cluster of storms.

Still, with a moist, very unstable airmass to evolve through peak
heating, any storms which do develop could beco*e locally/briefly
intense, posing some risk for hail and gusty winds.

..Goss.. 06/14/2022