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SPC MD 1163

SPC MD 1163

[html]MD 1163 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OH...SOUTHWEST PA...NORTHERN WV...FAR WESTERN MD...FAR NORTHWEST VA
       
MD 1163 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Areas affected...Southeast OH...Southwest PA...Northern WV...Far
western MD...Far northwest VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141244Z - 141445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of isolated hail and strong wind
gusts are possible this morning.

DISCUSSION...A strong elevated thunderstorm has recently developed
across southeast OH, with convection also increasing into parts of
northern WV. These storms are developing along an instability
gradient that is expected to move slowly eastward with time, as
continued low-level moisture advection occurs underneath the leading
edge of a steep midlevel lapse rate plume. Moderate MUCAPE and
favorable deep-layer shear will support an isolated hail risk with
the strongest storms, and any eventual storm clustering could result
in isolated strong wind gusts. At this time, the short-term severe
threat appears too limited for watch issuance.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   40028124 40298036 40378009 39567928 38887902 38477901
            38187928 38258015 38618057 39138105 39558128 40028124


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Source: SPC MD 1163 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1163.html)