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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN
OHIO....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Monday across parts of
the northern Plains, and from portions of the Midwest into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes all appear possible. Some of the winds could be
significantly severe (75+ mph) across parts of the Midwest/Ohio
Valley Monday afternoon/evening.

...Upper MS into Great Lakes region...
A broad upper ridge remains over the southern US today, with the
primary band of westerlies extending from the Dakotas eastward into
the Great Lakes region.  Early morning model guidance suggests a
shortwave trough and associated 40-50 knot midlevel speed max is
currently over IA.  Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in
vicinity of this feature, along with a couple of MCVs noted in radar
imagery.  Ahead of this shortwave trough, a warm front is lifting
northward across IA/IL/IN/OH.  Dewpoints in the 70s and strong
heating to the south of the front will yield high CAPE values of
3000-4000 J/kg later today.

Present indications are that either remnants of the ongoing
convection over IA/MN or new storms will intensify by early
afternoon over southern WI/northern IL and rapidly beco*e severe. 
These storms will track along the retreating baroclinic zone across
Lake MI and into portions of Lower MI, and northern IN/OH during the
afternoon.  It appears possible that a long-lived bowing MCS could
result in a swath of considerable wind damage along this corridor. 
However, recent CAM solutions continue to vary on the details of the
track.  Have added an ENH area to address this threat.  The ENH may
need to be extended farther east in later outlooks as clarity in the
evolution of the MCS beco*es greater.  Along with the damaging wind
risk, the strongest cells may produce large hail and a few
tornadoes.

...Dakotas...
A surface low is forecast to deepen over eastern WY this afternoon
while a cold front moves across the northern Rockies and high
Plains.  Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by early
evening over western SD/ND and track northeastward.  Vertical shear
profiles will be favorable for supercell storms capable of all
hazards over portions of ND.  Farther south, models suggest that
storms that form will be behind the cold front, with hail being the
main concern.

..Hart/Broyles.. 06/13/2022