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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARKANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon into tonight from parts of northeast Texas to the Ozarks
and Mid-South, with the greatest threat expected over parts of far
eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible.

...Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma to Mid-South...
Broad cyclonic mid/high-level flow will persist over the region
today, although there will be a tendency for upper heights to rise
regionally, particularly late today through tonight. A cold front
will continue to slowly advance southeastward across the
Ozarks/Mid-South and toward southeast Oklahoma today, although it is
expected to return northward as a warm front tonight in response to
lee cyclogenesis across the north-central High Plains. A byproduct
of an early overnight MCS near the I-44 corridor, an outflow
boundary also continues to settle southward/decay across
north-central Arkansas and east-central Oklahoma in the predawn
hours.

A few stronger storms could occur early today across northern
Arkansas northeastward toward the lower Ohio Valley, but a more
appreciable severe risk is likely to unfold later this afternoon,
farther to the south-southwest.

The outflow boundary will likely further stall/decay during the day,
but its residual influence/imprint, particularly where it intercepts
the front, is a probable focus for at least widely scattered deep
convective development by late afternoon across east/southeast
Oklahoma into western/northern Arkansas. Upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE
may exist by peak heating, particularly across southeast Oklahoma
and southwest Arkansas. 

Some diurnal weakening of the strong early day southwesterly
low-level jet will likely occur today, although mid-level winds will
remain strong (40-45 kt 700-500 mb) particularly at a latitude
including Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Effective shear of 40-50
kt will support supercells where storms do develop later today.
Large hail can be expected along with the potential for tornadoes,
with low-level SRH/hodograph curvature maximized near the
boundary(ies). Storms should remain semi-discrete for a duration
through late afternoon/early evening, particularly given the
relatively weak forcing-for-ascent influences. Even so, some
eventual upscale growth is probable this evening with at least some
increased potential for wind damage.

...Central/north Texas...
A conditionally favorable environment for supercells will be in
place along and east of a dryline into parts of central and north
Texas this afternoon/evening. The potential for deep convective
initiation remains highly uncertain, however, under the influence of
height rises and residual mid-level capping. Regardless, at least a
couple of late afternoon/early evening storms are plausible given
modest near-dryline convergence and ample post-dryline
heating/mixing. Should initiation occur and sustain, a conditional
risk of very large hail and locally severe wind gusts will be
present with any sustained supercell.

..Guyer/Smith.. 04/11/2022