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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts
of the Upper Midwest into Upper Michigan. Large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible.

...Great Lakes into the Upper Midwest and Central Plains...
An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the
northern Plains and central Canada on Wednesday. Ahead of a related
surface cold front, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be
in place from parts of IA northward into WI and vicinity by
Wednesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear across this region appears
strong enough to support organized convection, including the
potential for supercells. Thunderstorms will likely develop
along/ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening while
posing a threat for large to very large hail given the fairly steep
mid-level lapse rates and large buoyancy forecast. If convection can
grow upscale into lines/clusters, then damaging winds may also
occur. A few tornadoes also appear possible with any supercells that
can be sustained, as low-level shear is forecast to increase through
the day. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in a later
outlook if confidence in persistent supercells increases. A more
isolated severe threat should also exist across parts of the central
Plains Wednesday evening/night as convection develops along/behind
the front.

...New York into the Mid-Atlantic...
A rather moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place
along/west of a front across these regions. An upper ridge may tend
to suppress convection for much of the day, but some guidance
suggests there may be potential for one or more clusters to evolve
from southeastern Canada into parts of NY and the Mid-Atlantic on
the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. If this occurs, then
damaging winds would be possible given the strong instability
forecast. Have included low severe probabilities to account for this
potential, although confidence remains low that robust thunderstorms
will develop.

...Northern Plains...
Weak to moderate instability may develop Wednesday afternoon along a
secondary cold front across parts of far eastern ND into
northwestern MN. Shear should be strong enough for updraft
organization if enough instability can be realized, and it appears
that isolated severe thunderstorms could occur across this region.

..Gleason.. 06/13/2022