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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough/low should continue eastward across the Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes, and central/eastern Canada on Day 4/Thursday.
Rich low-level moisture is forecast to advance northward ahead of a
front across parts of the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. As ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the warm
sector, thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of the front across
portions of these regions. Forecast instability and shear should
support organized severe thunderstorms, with the greatest severe
potential focused from parts of OH into western/central PA and NY.
Damaging winds could occur with any line segments or clusters, along
with some hail given the moderate to locally strong instability
expected. Have introduced a 15% severe area for Thursday from parts
of the OH Valley to NY to account for this severe potential.

A large-scale upper ridge should build over the central CONUS and
Canada from Day 5/Friday into this upco*ing weekend. With the better
low-level moisture shifting offshore from a majority of the East
Coast, any potentially organized severe thunderstorm potential may
be confined to parts of coastal VA and the Carolinas. Otherwise, a
highly amplified upper trough may impact parts of the western states
this weekend as it moves slowly eastward. Some severe risk may
eventually develop across parts of the northern Rockies into the
northern Plains from Day 6/Saturday through Day 8/Monday. But,
predictability remains low at this extended time frame.