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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough/low should move slowly east-northeastward across the
northern/central Plains and central Canada on Day 4/Tuesday.
Moderate to strong instability should develop across parts of the
Upper Midwest into the central Plains along/ahead of a front
associated with the upper trough. At this point, it appears that the
better forcing aloft will shift into Canada through the day, with
minimal convective signal along the front through early Tuesday
evening. Still, if a clearer signal in model guidance shows that
convection will develop along the front, then a 15% severe area may
eventually be needed for some part of these regions.

The upper trough/low is forecast to move little on Day 5/Wednesday.
An embedded shortwave trough may move across parts of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the day. It appears possible
that thunderstorms may form along/ahead of a surface front Wednesday
afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest into the
Great Lakes and central Plains. If they do, then forecast shear and
instability appear sufficient for organized severe convection.
However, there is too much uncertainty regarding the placement of
the front and potential corridor of severe thunderstorms to
delineate a 15% severe area for Wednesday at this time.

As the upper trough/low moves eastward across central/eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes/Northeast on Day 6/Thursday and Day 7/Friday,
some severe risk may exist across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into New
England on both days. Uncertainty in the placement and evolution of
the upper trough and related surface features remains high at this
extended time frame, suggesting predictability remains low.