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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA...NORTHERN
WYOMING...SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
One or more clusters of strong thunderstorms may evolve and impact a
corridor from the northern Rockies into the middle and lower
Missouri Valley Saturday into Saturday night, acco*panied by at
least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that blocking will persist within the large-scale
flow across eastern Canada through this period.  It appears that
this will include a mid-level high beco*ing centered over Hudson
Bay, and, while one mid-level low emerging from an initially broader
cyclonic circulation accelerates east-northeast of the Canadian
Maritimes, another co*pact mid-level low likely will linger
near/southwest of James Bay.  

While mid-level heights are forecast to rise across most areas east
of the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that mid-level troughing
within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific
will be maintained to the south of the Ontario low.  As an upstream
short wave trough progresses toward the U.S. Pacific coast,
mid-level heights are expected to gradually fall across much of the
northwestern U.S., while a prominent mid-level high, initially
centered over the southern Rockies vicinity, shifts
east-southeastward into the southern Great Plains by late Saturday
night.

In association with this regime, a plume of very warm and capping
elevated mixed-layer air is forecast to advect east of the Rockies
through much of the central and southern Great Plains.  As this
occurs, models indicate that the primary near-surface baroclinic
zone, initially extending across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast
states into the southern Great Plains (associated with the eastern
mid-level troughing), will redevelop northward, into the Mid
Atlantic and lower Ohio through lower/middle Missouri Valleys and
northern Rockies vicinity.

...Northern Rockies into middle/lower Missouri Valley...
The developing baroclinic zone on the northern periphery of the
lingering mid-level ridging, across the northern intermountain
region and Rockies, and plume of elevated mixed-layer air advecting
east of the higher terrain into the middle/lower Missouri Valley
(roughly around 700 mb) may provide the primary focus for the most
substantive thunderstorm development during this period.  Lower/mid
tropospheric lapse rates will be steep along this corridor, where
deep-layer shear will likely also be strong on the southern
periphery of 30-50 kt west-northwesterly flow around the 500 mb
level.  It appears that a return of seasonably moist boundary-layer
air to much of the lower into middle Missouri Valley will contribute
to moderately large potential instability (on the order of 2000-3000
J/kg).  However, northwestward into higher portions of the northern
Great Plains into northern Rockies, more modest moistening is
forecast to yield much weaker CAPE.

Given sufficient destabilization, the environment could beco*e
conducive to severe thunderstorm development, including supercells
and organizing clusters, across parts of southern Montana and
adjacent northern Wyoming into western/southern South Dakota late
Saturday afternoon and evening.  It remains unclear if this forcing,
and associated convective development will impact the stronger
potential instability southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley
overnight.  

However, despite the uncertain mid/upper support, the developing
reservoir of strong potential instability across parts of eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa into portions of northwestern and central
Missouri will support a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm
development throughout the period. Near/shortly after peak heating, 
it might not be out of the question that a strengthening corridor of
lower/mid tropospheric warm advection could contribute to initiation
of thunderstorm development.  This could include the upscale growth
of convection from an isolated supercell or two into an organizing
southeastward propagating cluster of storms with increasing risk of
producing potential damaging surface gusts by Saturday evening.

..Kerr.. 06/10/2022