Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across
parts of the northern/central Plains. Other strong to severe
thunderstorms appear possible for parts of the Midwest into the Ohio
Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

...Northern/Central Plains...
An upper trough should gradually advance eastward across the western
CONUS on Sunday, while an upper ridge builds over parts of the
Plains and Upper Midwest. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to
return northward ahead of the upper trough across parts of the
northern/central High Plains. Even though the stronger ascent
associated with the upper trough will likely remain displaced to the
west of the surface warm sector, most guidance insists that
convection will develop by late Sunday afternoon into the evening
across parts of the northern/central High Plains. At least moderate
instability coupled with strong deep-layer shear will favor
organized convection, with supercells possible. Large hail and
severe wind gusts may occur as this activity spreads
east-northeastward through Sunday evening. An isolated severe threat
may persist into Sunday night across a broad portion of the
northern/central Plains as a southerly low-level jet strengthens.

...Midwest into the Ohio Valley...
A cluster/MCS may be ongoing Sunday morning across some portion of
the Midwest. A very moist low-level airmass will likely be in place
ahead of this convection across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley
along/south of a front. Given that large-scale ridging is forecast
to gradually shift eastward across these areas through the period,
it remains unclear whether severe thunderstorms will be able to
develop/persist across these regions through the day. If convection
can form, then it would have access to strong to potentially extreme
instability, along with moderate deep-layer shear owing to enhanced
mid-level west-northwesterly flow. Both severe/damaging wind and
large hail could occur if convection develops. The main uncertainty
precluding greater severe probabilities is the placement/evolution
of thunderstorms Sunday morning and overall coverage of convection
across this region Sunday afternoon. If confidence increases that an
MCS will sweep southeastward across parts of the Midwest and OH
Valley as some guidance suggests, then greater severe probabilities
would be needed.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon
and evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic as a large-scale upper
trough lifts northeastward into New England. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty with how much instability will develop through
Sunday afternoon. Regardless, isolated damaging wind gusts and
perhaps some hail may occur with the strongest thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 06/10/2022