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Mesoscale Discussion 1100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Colorado...northeastern New Mexico
and adjacent portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...western
Kansas...southwestern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 091849Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing strong thunderstorm development appears likely
by 2-4 PM MDT, acco*panied by a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...In response to daytime heating and orographic forcing,
thunderstorms are beginning to initiate near the eastern slopes of
the Sangre de Cristos.  Deepening convective development is also
noted along the Front Range, where layered cloudiness has inhibited
insolation at least somewhat.

This is occurring beneath 30-50 kt west-northwesterly flow around
500 mb.  However, stronger deep-layer shear supportive of supercells
is generally focused closer to the Colorado/Kansas state border
area, aided by more pronounced veering of wind fields in lower
through mid-levels to the east of the lee surface troughing.  The
more substantive boundary-layer destabilization is also focused
along and east of the surface troughing southward into the Raton
Mesa, where mixed-layer CAPE is increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg
range.

With additional insolation, mid-level inhibition will continue to
erode east of the higher terrain through the next few hours, perhaps
supported by large-scale ascent aided by lower/mid tropospheric warm
advection, downstream of high level troughing digging to the lee of
the northern Rockies.

Through 20-22Z, thunderstorm activity is likely to beco*e
increasingly numerous across and north through east of the Raton
Mesa vicinity, where shear is weaker but thermodynamic profiles
(including steep lapse rates) may still be conducive to severe hail
and strong downbursts.  Outflows may begin to gradually consolidate
and contribute to an upscale growing cluster of storms.  Other more
widely scattered thunderstorm development may also co*mence
northward through eastern Colorado, where the shear is stronger, and
the evolution of isolated supercells may promote the risk for severe
hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/09/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36960428 37620327 38830327 39360318 40110281 40410216
            39310163 37890156 36870188 35970288 35550423 36150445
            36960428