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Mesoscale Discussion 0443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Areas affected...Parts of north central Oklahoma...southeastern
Kansas...southwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...

Valid 110426Z - 110630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail continues, and the potential for
strong surface gusts appears to be increasing in a corridor across
the Bartlesville OK vicinity into the Joplin MO area through
Midnight-2 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of persistent lift along the weak
surface front is contributing to the initiation of new thunderstorm
development across southeast Kansas, near Coffeyville, northeastward
toward the Missouri Ozarks.  However, the most prominent
thunderstorm development through 06-08Z appears likely to be
maintained in a broader corridor of strengthening mid-level warm
advection (centered around the 700 mb level).  This is forecast to
remain focused across northern Oklahoma, but an evolving, and
increasingly organized cluster of storms on the leading edge of this
regime may reach the Joplin MO area by around 07Z.  

As the lead cluster advances east-northeastward, further upscale
growth and intensification is possible, aided by inflow of
increasingly moist air emanating from the pre-frontal boundary
layer.  This may be acco*panied by a strengthening surface cold pool
and rear inflow contributing to increasing risk for strong surface
gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits.

..Kerr.. 04/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37369550 37909417 37529311 36989355 36309525 35789757
            36129845 36829817 37369550