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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are most probable across the Ohio
Valley/Midwest and from the southern Great Plains across the Deep
South.

...OH Valley/Midwest...
A weakening MCS is ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley along a warm
front. A continued weakening trend is anticipated through midday
with a remnant MCV tracking east across central IL/IN. As the warm
front advances northeast, a plume of 60s surface dew points co*bined
with pockets of greater insolation to the south and in the wake of
the MCV, in conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse rates given
the approaching shortwave trough should result in destabilization
and a pronounced gradient of MLCAPE this afternoon. Several
supercells will likely develop within a belt of strong mid-level
westerlies attendant to the shortwave trough and enhanced
lower-level flow attendant to the MCV. Should adequate
destabilization occur where low-level hodographs are enlarged,
potential for a few tornadoes will exist, in addition to scattered
damaging winds and large hail. Convection should subside after dusk,
but adequate low to deep-layer shear may support an isolated severe
threat persisting tonight.

...Southern Great Plains to the Deep South...
Evening to early morning guidance has horribly simulated the bulk of
ongoing convection, with the 07-09Z HRRR runs at least in the
ballpark. The most substantial convection has produced widespread
50-80 mph measured wind gusts in the TX Panhandle with a
west/east-oriented cluster plowing south along a cold front surge.
While robust MLCIN to the south of this activity renders short-term
uncertainty on how this convection will evolve, it appears plausible
that some form of a cluster/small MCS may persist east-southeast
along the Red River Valley into the diurnal heating cycle.
Uncertainty still exists whether an organized east-southeast-moving
MCS with attendant damaging wind potential will just keep
propagating towards the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley, or whether
it evolves into multiple less-organized clusters with some stronger
semi-discrete cells that could pose both a wind and hail threat. For
this reason, have deferred on upgrading to a potential cat 3-ENH
risk for wind but instead have adjusted the cat 2-SLGT risk for the
most probable damaging wind corridor. 

...Southeast NM and Far West TX...
Relatively moist easterly low-level flow and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support moderate-to-large buoyancy at peak afternoon
heating. Mid/upper-level flow will be rather weak, but there will be
immense veering of the wind profile with height for modest
effective shear of 20-30 kt. This should be adequate for a few
low-end supercells initially evolving predominately slow-moving
multicell clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts, hail, and a brief
tornado will be possible, with activity likely to nocturnally weaken
after dusk. 

...Carolinas to the Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Strong diurnal heating will support widely scattered thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Poor mid-level lapse rates and generally
modest deep-layer flow/shear will likely limit storm organization,
but steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat of localized
damaging winds with the strongest storms.

..Grams/Broyles.. 06/08/2022