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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NE TO NORTHERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OK TO
WESTERN TN...

...SUMMARY...
Significant severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of the
central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Very
large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible.

...NE and northern KS vicinity...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will
eject east into SD/NE by evening. A belt of 50-60 kt 500-mb
westerlies to the south of this wave will likely intensify to 70-80
kt over NE by 06Z. A lee surface trough will remain anchored along
the I-25 corridor in CO with a separate low near the CO/KS/NE
border, with a west/east-oriented portion of the surface front
across southern NE.

Large-scale ascent through a co*bination of mid-level height falls
and weak upslope flow will aid in scattered thunderstorms forming by
early afternoon across eastern WY and spreading into the NE
Panhandle. Additional storms will likely along the baroclinic zone
eastward across NE during the late afternoon, while more isolated
storms developing across eastern CO. With effective bulk shear
strengthening to in excess of 60 kts, a highly elongated and nearly
straight-line mid/upper hodograph will favor numerous supercells and
both left/right splits. The main uncertainty is with the degree of
buoyancy in this region given current presence of mid 50s to low 60s
surface dew points. It does appear that moderate boundary-layer
heating south/west of the surface front amid steep mid-level lapse
rates should support MLCAPE increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg. This will
likely be sufficient for significant severe hail as the primary
initial hazard.

During the evening, consolidating cells will likely grow upscale
into an MCS across southern NE into northern KS. The degree of shear
and synoptic pattern would favor a potential derecho with bowing
linear segments and significant severe wind gusts in excess of 80
mph, which is most supported by the 00Z HRW-ARW. However, both the
06Z NAM/09Z RAP and recent HRRR runs suggest that a buoyancy donut
may linger across parts of central/eastern KS in the wake of
recently decayed convection across southern KS and a deeper cluster
in central to eastern OK. This renders enough thermodynamic
uncertainty in cold pool intensity tonight to preclude an upgrade to
cat 4/MDT-risk.

...South-central High Plains into OK...
Mid to late afternoon thunderstorm development appears probable off
the Sangre de Cristos and Raton Mesa vicinity, which will likely
include a few supercells given 30-40 kt 500-mb westerlies.
Confidence is low in subsequent evolution eastward across the
Panhandles and southwest KS this evening into tonight. A substantial
frontal surge has occurred into the TX South Plains. Although
modification will occur, it is plausible that the boundary-layer
over the Panhandles will remain well capped beneath a stout EML.
Ascent from the LLJ will mainly be focused across western to central
OK, which might support some uptick in isolated severe potential
overnight.

...Eastern OK to Western TN...
A slow-moving but deep convective cluster is ongoing across
south-central OK in association with a lead frontal surge. Evening
to overnight CAM guidance is quite varied in how this activity will
evolve. If a surface cold pool can beco*e established the threat for
strong to severe wind gusts will increase prior to peak diurnal
heating. Otherwise, if convection weakens for a time as low-level
warm theta-e advection subsides, remnants of it would potentially
restrengthen this afternoon in the Mid-South.

...OH to western NY...
Stratiform rain occurring from the Lower Great Lakes to the
Cumberland Plateau within a pronounced low-level jet is expected to
translate northeast across the northern Appalachians into this
afternoon. Most guidance suggests in the wake of this activity
isolated to scattered moderate-topped thunderstorms may develop
along the surface cold front. Low-level winds will weaken/beco*e
veered ahead of the front, suggesting that isolated damaging winds
and small to marginally severe hail will be the primary hazards.

..Grams/Broyles.. 06/07/2022