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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENH RISK AND FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards will be
possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Tuesday.
Severe wind threat, with some hail, is also possible from eastern
Oklahoma to western Tennessee.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting east across southern
ID/northern NV. Water-vapor depicts this feature well and subsequent
movement should track across WY by mid afternoon as 60kt 500mb speed
max translates along the WY/CO into the central High Plains by
08/00z. This evolution should encourage a weak surface low to form
in the lee of the CO Rockies which should ensure easterly low-level
co*ponent across southern NE before pressures build and force the
boundary south to near the KS border by early evening. Models
continue to favor this boundary as the primary focus for
strong/severe thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave. A
corridor of modest surface heating is forecast ahead of the surface
low, northeast into southwest NE. This will result in modest
instability prior to convective development. Current thinking is
scattered convection will develop ahead of the speed max over
southeast WY/NE Panhandle then track southeast where intensification
is likely as convection interacts with aforementioned boundary and
higher moisture/buoyancy. Earlier thoughts regarding the ENH Risk
continue and have only made minor adjustments to account for and MCS
to mature and possibly propagate a bit farther southeast into
west-central MO than earlier expected. Forecast soundings suggest
supercells will be co*mon early in the convective cycle before
clustering and MCS development. All hazards are possible with
supercells, then more damaging winds with potential bow-type
structures.

Southern extent of scattered severe may extend into northeast NM as
upslope flow aids thunderstorm development along the higher terrain
by late afternoon. 30kt 500mb westerly flow at this latitude should
be more than adequate for convection to spread toward the TX
Panhandle after sunset. Depending on boundary-layer recover across
this region scattered supercells could produce hail/wind into the
late evening.

...Eastern OK to Western TN...

Northwesterly flow continues across the Plains early this morning
with modest speeds observed to near I-40. Diurnally driven
thunderstorms evolved over the higher terrain of CO this afternoon
and this activity has progressed downstream into southwestern KS
where upscale growth is now occurring. Latest trends suggest an MCS
will likely mature and continue propagating southeast into OK by
sunrise. This cluster is a bit farther west/south than last night's
convection. Based on this position, it appears resultant
MCV/convective influence will aid renewed robust convection across
east-central/southeast OK before spreading downstream across AR as
the boundary layer warms. Subsequent scattered strong/severe should
propagate into western TN as convective short wave ejects into the
Mid-South. Damaging winds are the greatest threat with bow-type
structures.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/07/2022