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Mesoscale Discussion 1056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Portions of south-central/southeastern NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 062046Z - 062245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A lone supercell will continue to pose a threat for large
hail and severe winds in the short term. If additional thunderstorms
can develop, a watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A single, robust supercell that developed and
subsequently strengthened over the past hour or two over eastern NE
has a history of producing hail up to 2 inches in diameter. This
cell is presently located to the north of a weak surface front. But,
around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear
will likely support continued convective organization and a severe
hail threat with this supercell in the short term. The main
uncertainty is whether additional robust thunderstorms will develop
along/near the surface boundary over the next couple of hours.
Recent visible satellite imagery shows a few attempts at convective
initiation farther west in central NE. If it beco*es more certain
that multiple intense thunderstorms will develop across
south-central into southeastern NE in addition to the ongoing
supercell, then a watch may be needed.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   40809870 41509823 41549768 41239664 40939638 40179645
            40029693 40039799 40109870 40789878 40809870