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Mesoscale Discussion 1054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming into
southwest South Dakota and Northwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 061955Z - 062200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify through the
remainder of the afternoon across the northern High Plains. One or
more supercells may propagate southeast into northwest Nebraska
through the evening hours. A watch will likely be needed to address
this potential for more intense storms.

DISCUSSION...GOES imagery and lightning data continue to point
towards an uptick in convective activity across the northern High
Plains. This is in response to 1) increasing destabilization via
daytime warming and 2) increasing ascent associated with the
left-exit region of an approaching upper-level jet. Additionally,
more isolated thunderstorms are noted along a weak cold front draped
from southeast MT into western SD/NE. This trend will continue
through the rest of the afternoon as daytime warming continues and
the upper jet noses into the northern Plains. Effective bulk shear
values between 40-50 knots, co*bined with MLCAPE increasing to
1000-1500 J/kg, are favorable for robust convection. Splitting
supercells, and perhaps one or two organized clusters, will most
likely propagate to the southeast through the evening along the
buoyancy gradient/cold frontal boundary. The favorable thermodynamic
and kinematic environments and high likelihood of one or more
discrete supercells will support a large hail threat (including the
potential for significant hail). 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates is
favorable for severe winds, especially if an organized cluster can
beco*e established. A watch will likely be needed as convection
continues to intensify.

..Moore/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   44510630 45140631 45620541 45660452 44720346 43450143
            42759999 42369929 41909866 41439875 41009922 40690011
            40950123 41520232 41900291 44510630