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Mesoscale Discussion 1050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South into the lower Ohio
Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061734Z - 062000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts may occur as thunderstorms move
northeastward this afternoon. It is not clear that a watch will be
needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized band of convection is present
across parts of western TN/KY and vicinity early this afternoon,
with a smaller, separate cluster located over southern IN. This
activity is associated with an MCV from a decayed MCS that occurred
earlier this morning across the Ozarks. The stronger low/mid-level
flow attendant to this MCV currently lags the leading line of
thunderstorms, with only modest winds aloft present downstream into
central KY and middle TN based on recent VWP estimates from area
radars. Still, as filtered diurnal heating occurs over the next few
hours, gradual destabilization of the boundary layer should allow
for thunderstorms to beco*e surface based. Occasional strong to
damaging winds will be the main threat given the already linear
mode. But, the lack of stronger deep-layer shear will probably tend
to limit updraft organization and intensity. Accordingly, the
overall severe wind threat may remain fairly isolated for the next
few hours. It remains unclear whether this activity will strengthen
enough to warrant watch issuance, but convective trends will be
closely monitored.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34928976 36678906 38148810 38808730 39078650 38828575
            38178558 37428580 36198648 35458725 35018823 34858914
            34928976