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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible from the Lower
Ohio Valley to Mid-South this afternoon and evening. Scattered
severe thunderstorms are also possible from the Black Hills vicinity
to the central Great Plains and south-central High Plains this
afternoon and evening.

...Mid-South and Lower OH Valley...
A weakening MCS is ongoing from southwest MO to western/central AR.
Boundary-layer heating ahead of this MCS will likely aid in an
uptick in thunderstorm intensity towards midday near the MS Valley
with updrafts along the leading edge of the convective outflow.
While the bulk of stronger flow attendant to the MCV should lag
behind this initial activity, sufficient deep-layer shear should
exist for multicell clusters propagating across the Lower OH Valley.
Scattered damaging winds should be the primary hazard.

In the wake of this round, most guidance indicates that convective
redevelopment will occur atop the trailing outflow boundary across
parts of the Mid-South during the late afternoon to early evening.
With the eastern periphery of the southern Great Plains EML
impinging on this region and differential boundary-layer heating, a
pronounced gradient in MLCAPE should beco*e established. Amid a belt
of enhanced mid-level northwesterlies to the southwest of the MCV
and adequate 0-3 km SRH, wind profiles would conditionally favor
semi-discrete supercell clusters. However, given the early-period
convection, there is low confidence in just how much overlap will
occur between favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameters. As
such, have deferred on potential upgrades to tornado and hail
probabilities. An isolated severe threat may linger into tonight as
clusters encroach on the TN Valley.

...Northern High Plains and Black Hills to central NE...
A low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the northern Rockies will
move east into the Dakotas by evening. Attendant belt of 50-60 kt
500-mb westerlies will similarly translate east to the south of this
impulse. This will aid in highly elongated, straight-line hodographs
later this afternoon into the evening. Initial thunderstorm
development is expected across southeast MT and northeast WY during
the early afternoon and across the Black Hills by mid-afternoon.
Buoyancy will initially be weak, but convection should impinge on
the northwest extent of modest MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg emanating
from southern NE. Most CAMs suggest potential for a couple
long-tracked supercells in this regime with large hail as the main
hazard. How large is somewhat uncertain given the modest buoyancy
and moderate mid-level lapse rates. But the very favorable wind
profiles and convective mode support a threat for significant severe
hail. 

...South-central High Plains...
Ample high-based convective development is expected off the southern
Rockies this afternoon. This activity will intensify during the
early evening as it impinges on a pronounced MLCAPE gradient across
the Panhandles into western KS. Initially weak low-level shear,
high-based storms, and slightly warmer 500-mb temperatures all
suggest that convective intensity should be somewhat lower relative
to recent days. Still, adequate deep-layer shear will exist for a
few supercells to emerge during the evening with a threat for severe
hail and wind. 

...FL and southeast GA...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough over the northeast Gulf will drift
east today. This feature will aid in a pocket of -10 C 500-mb
temperatures across north FL and southeast GA this afternoon. As
MLCAPE reaches 1500-2000 J/kg, scattered thunderstorms should
develop along the sea breezes. While lower-level flow will be quite
weak, 25-40 kt effective bulk shear will support mid-level updraft
rotation. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts are
possible.

..Grams/Broyles.. 06/06/2022