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Mesoscale Discussion 1040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Areas affected...Western Nebraska into Eastern Colorado and
northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 052016Z - 052215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The probability of damaging winds and large hail is
increasing as thunderstorms develop from northwest Nebraska into
eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas. Trends will continue to be
monitored, and a watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms initiating in the vicinity of a surface
low along the western NE/SD border have shown periodic
intensification over the past hour with a general increase in storm
coverage. To the south, initial attempts at initiation are noted
along a diffuse surface trough along the CO/NE border and into
east-central CO. Additional attempts at initiation are possible as a
mid-level wave (noted in afternoon water-vapor imagery) moves across
the region. Although most of this activity is developing within a
more deeply-mixed air mass, MLCAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg
range, coupled with 30-40 knot zonal effective bulk shear vectors,
will support maturing convection through the late afternoon. As
storms meander east during the late afternoon/early evening they
will move into an axis of better boundary-layer moisture/higher
instability that will augment the potential for intense convection.
Initially discrete supercells will pose a threat for large (to
perhaps very large) hail as this intensification occurs. Steep
low-level lapse rates (between 8-9 C/km) will allow for strong
outflows that may lead to eventual clustering and upscale growth.
Some guidance hints that this clustering could beco*e more organized
into a forward propagating MCS late tonight as the nocturnal
low-level jet increases, but confidence in this scenario is low
given notable spread in hi-res solutions. Regardless, a watch may be
needed to address the potential for robust discrete convection.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   43280205 43000110 41810100 40240108 38480137 38170184
            38130233 38230280 38550316 39320324 40870311 41890285
            42970288 43280205