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Mesoscale Discussion 1028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Areas affected...Northern New Hampshire and northwestern Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041812Z - 042015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely continue
to develop through the remainder of the afternoon and may be capable
of sporadic damaging winds and hail.

DISCUSSION...Mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery reveals an
upper-level low over southeastern Canada. Cool temperatures aloft
(500 mb temps generally between -18 to -22 C) and broad difluence on
the southeastern periphery of the low is providing sufficient MLCAPE
(generally around 500 J/kg) and lift to support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. While the better instability and lift
resides on the Canadian side of the border, portions of northern NH
and northwestern ME are within the periphery of this environment.
Morning soundings and recent RAP forecast soundings show 50-70 knot
flow near and above 6 km, though much of the mixed-layer and most
unstable layer CAPE profiles lie beneath this level. Forecast
soundings and VWP observations suggest that winds within the
CAPE-bearing layer are considerably weaker, generally 15-25 knots.
Consequently, the propensity for organized convection may be limited
to any storms that can achieve sufficiently deep updrafts to achieve
upper-level venting provided by the stronger winds aloft. Given the
somewhat weak forcing for ascent, this potential appears limited in
the near term, though may increase as a cold front moves through the
region later this afternoon and early evening. Steepening low-level
lapse rates will support the potential for strong, possibly
damaging, downburst winds, and some hail is possible given the cold
temperatures aloft. However, this threat is expected to be limited,
and a watch is not expected.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   44527051 44387121 44717172 45147178 45277157 45917059
            46617017 47136971 47146916 46786895 46256885 45776905
            45096955 44527051