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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS TO THE TX PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Great
Plains to the Texas Panhandle, mainly in the late afternoon and
evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are
possible.

...Central Great Plains...
In the wake of an MCV drifting east over central KS, 50s to low 60s
surface dew points remain pervasive from the southern High Plains
into western KS. As a plume of very steep mid-level lapse rates
sampled by the 12Z Denver sounding spreads east, a swath of moderate
to large buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-3000 J/kg will develop at
peak heating. Initially isolated thunderstorm development is
expected along the lee trough in eastern CO and along a
quasi-stationary front bisecting NE during the late afternoon.
Convective coverage will likely increase in the early evening as
additional cells form along the front and towards the front/lee
trough intersection. 

While mid to upper flow won't be particularly strong, a
west-northwesterly directional co*ponent will aid in effective bulk
shear of 30-40 kts. This will be adequate for a few supercells
capable of producing significant severe hail. Consolidating
convective outflows may eventually yield clusters progressing
southeast through tonight across western/central KS with an
attendant severe wind threat. Have expanded the cat 2/SLGT risk to
account for this scenario. 

...Southern High Plains...
Decaying convection is ongoing from south-central TX westward
towards the Pecos Valley. This activity should further decay through
midday. The dryline will sharpen this afternoon along the I-27
corridor to the Lower Pecos Valley. Convective development appears
most probable in the Big Bend region where terrain influence will
aid in sustaining updrafts. Guidance is quite varied in the degree
of convective development farther north along the dryline as a weak
upper trough passes across it around 21Z. Have expanded the cat
2/SLGT risk for now at least into the Panhandles given a conditional
supercell threat capable of significant severe hail. 

...Southeast FL...
Deep convection persists across southwest FL near a tropical
disturbance, while convection that occurred over many hours along
the southeast FL coast has largely shifted offshore. Surface to
low-level wind fields have consistently veered with time per
time-series of Key West VWP data and surface obs across the Keys.
Increasingly veered low-level flow has recently reach the Miami VWP
and was sampled by the 12Z sounding. It appears less likely that
robust deep convection will be coincident with more favorable
low-level hodograph curvature for mesocyclone formation. But where
surface winds can remain backed, a weak brief tornado is still
possible through midday.

..Grams/Broyles.. 06/04/2022