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Mesoscale Discussion 1020
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Areas affected...southeastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 031902Z - 032100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe-weather risk will gradually increase this afternoon
as storms move off the higher terrain.  WW may be required.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar loops show storms
developing over the high terrain of Sangre de Cristo range of
southeastern Colorado, and southward across eastern New Mexico to
the Sacramentos.  Daytime heating of the modestly moist (50s
dewpoints) boundary layer has led to moderate destabilization, with
1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now the mean across this area. 
Additional destabilization will support continued
initiation/intensification of storms over the next several hours.

Along with ample CAPE, low-level southeasterly flow present across
the region is indicated beneath moderate (around 40 kt) mid-level
westerlies.  Resulting cloud-layer shear is sufficient to support
organized/rotating storms, and attendant risk for large hail with
stronger storms.  Additionally, with some evaporative downdraft
enhancement possible due to the deepening mixed layer through peak
heating, locally gusty/damaging winds will also be possible.  We
will continue to monitor convective evolution, with an eye toward
possible WW issuance.

..Goss/Guyer.. 06/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   37400491 38050486 37900399 37270316 35460327 33610386
            32730436 32680528 33540547 35300515 35930527 36920475
            37400491