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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central
Great Plains Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.  A developing
tropical system may also pose at least some risk for severe weather
across parts of southern Florida.

...Synopsis...
A strong, zonal mid/upper jet across the mid-latitude Pacific may
gradually impinge on the U.S. Pacific coast west of the southern
Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada vicinity during this period. 
Inland of the Canadian and U.S. Rockies, flow will remain weaker and
branched out across much of interior and eastern North America, with
an embedded blocking regime remaining prominent across much of
eastern Canada and adjacent portions of the northern United States. 
It appears that this may include an elongating mid/upper low with a
couple of emerging smaller scale cyclonic circulations east of the
Canadian Prairies through the lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Valley,
and into New England by late Saturday night.

In lower latitudes, broad mid-level ridging is forecast to be
maintained across much of the Intermountain West and Rockies into
the central and southern Great Plains, but with a number
smaller-scale perturbation progressing through this regime.  Broad,
weak  mid-level troughing is expected to linger across much of the
Gulf Coast/Gulf of Mexico vicinity through areas offshore of the
southern Atlantic Seaboard.  A developing tropical system merging
into this regime appears likely to rather quickly migrate across and
east of the southern Florida Peninsula.

To the north of a stalling and weakening surface frontal zone across
parts of the Southeast and north central/northwestern Gulf coast
vicinity, seasonably mild and stable conditions will prevail across
many areas.  However, moistening southerly low-level return flow,
beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates associated
with elevated mixed-layer air advecting east of the Rockies, may
contribute to moderate potential instability by late Saturday
afternoon.  This could occur in a corridor across the higher into
lower Great Plains, ahead of a reinforcing intrusion of cooler air
which may surge southward through the central Great Plains and
middle to lower Missouri Valley late Saturday through Saturday
night.

...Central Great Plains...
Destabilization associated with low-level moistening beneath
steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, coupled with
strengthening deep-layer shear beneath modest northwesterly
mid/upper flow, will contribute to an environment at least
conditionally supportive of severe thunderstorm development during
this period.  This may include a risk for isolated to widely
scattered supercell development and perhaps one or two upscale
growing, southeastward propagating thunderstorms clusters posing a
risk for large hail and strong surface gusts.  Supporting mid/upper
forcing to initiate and sustain this activity, however, remains
unclear.  And there appears sizable spread among the various model
output concerning how far east of the high plains that warmer and
more strong capping elevated mixed-layer spreads during this period,
with the leading edge of this air mass probably providing the
primary focus for any severe thunderstorm development.  To the east,
warm advection driven cloud cover and convection may tend to inhibit
boundary-layer destabilization.

...Southern Florida...
Potential influx of tropical boundary-layer moisture and enlarging
low-level hodographs, mostly within the right front quadrant of the
east-northeastward moving developing tropical system may contribute
to an environment conducive for convection capable of producing a
few brief tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts.  Most guidance
currently seems to suggest that this risk will be maximized across
the southern peninsula from Saturday morning into Saturday
afternoon, before diminishing by late Saturday afternoon.

..Kerr.. 06/03/2022