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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late Friday
afternoon through evening over parts of the southern High Plains. A
low-end severe risk may also develop into Saturday morning across
far southern Florida.

...Synopsis...
Modest west/northwest flow aloft will exist over the Rockies and
Plains, with an upper low over Manitoba and Ontario. A plume of mid
50s F dewpoints will surge north into the central High Plains during
the day, with 60s F into west TX. Daytime heating and cool
temperatures aloft will result in an unstable air mass from eastern
WY southward to west TX, resulting in scattered severe storms during
the afternoon and evening.

...Central and Southern High Plains northward Montana...
Storms are expected to form by 21Z from southeast WY down the Front
Range and into eastern NM as a weak disturbance aloft moves out of
the Great Basin. Lapse rates will be quite steep, with deep-layer
shear averaging near 35 kt. Individual cells may produce severe
hail, and isolated reports near 2.00" diameter will be possible over
NM and TX. Clustering of storms is then possible through evening as
a southeasterly low-level jet develops and storms shift into lower
elevations. Damaging winds would then be the primary concern.

Other storms are expected to form late afternoon across the higher
terrain of southwest MT, expanding east/southeast toward the Black
Hills. This will occur beneath minor shortwave ridging and with
modest northwest flow aloft. A few severe wind gusts may occur.

...Southeast...
A weak upper trough will move east across the Southeast today,
providing moistening midlevels and minimal cooling aloft. Strong
heating will occur across GA and the Carolinas, with a weak surface
trough/convergence zone developing. Scattered storms are likely by
21Z from northern GA and SC into eastern NC. Shear will be weak, but
favorable instability within a focused zone may result in pulse and
multicell severe during the afternoon. Localized wind damage and
marginal hail may occur.

...South FL...
A developing tropical cyclone is forecast to move northeastward
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and should be nearing the
southwestern coast of FL on Saturday. The strongest/most
concentrated convection is expected to remain offshore, but bands of
storms may arc eastward, affecting south FL prior to 12Z Saturday.
As such, will maintain low probabilities for a brief TC tornado as
the mid 70s F dewpoints spread north along with increasing low-level
shear.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 06/03/2022