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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible near the Texas-Oklahoma
border northward into the central Great Plains on Saturday.  A
marginal risk for a tornado or two may develop over central and
southern Florida.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Considerable uncertainty remains regarding organized severe
potential on Saturday across parts of the central/southern Plains,
mainly related to convective coverage and location. Forecast
guidance continues to indicate some potential for morning convection
ongoing somewhere across KS or OK as a midlevel shortwave trough
migrates across the region early. Should this activity occur, an
outflow boundary may extend across portions of the southern Plains
by afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s
dewpoints northward into KS and southeast NE, while mid/upper 60s
dewpoints reside across north TX and OK and as far west as the
eastern OK/TX Panhandles. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also
will reside across the Plains, contributing to moderate to strong
destabilization by afternoon. 

Another weak midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to migrate east
across the central Plains during the afternoon/evening and could
provide enough forcing for isolated thunderstorm development along
the dryline extending from western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles.
Additional storms could develop along a southward-advancing cold
front over NE during the afternoon and shift southward into KS by
evening. Deep-layer flow will remain rather weak and large-scale
ascent modest, so confidence in where storms will develop and storm
coverage remains low. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass,
coupled with adequate effective shear given vertically veering wind
profiles, will support at least isolated strong to severe storms
capable of damaging gusts and hail. Given uncertainty, the Marginal
risk will be maintained, though a Slight risk may beco*e necessary
in later outlooks.

...Central/Southern FL...

While forecast track guidance regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone
One has co*e into somewhat better agreement since yesterday, some
uncertainty still exists. However, current thinking is this system
will track across the central or southern FL Peninsula on Saturday.
Ahead of the low pressure center, a very moist airmass will be in
place with mid 70s surface dewpoints expected, though modest heating
will likely limit low-level lapse rates and instability. Favorable
shear profiles will support rotation in any supercells that develop
in outer bands or within mesovorticies near the low center, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.  For latest tropical cyclone
forecast track and intensity information, refer to the National
Hurricane Center official guidance.

..Leitman.. 06/03/2022