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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds remain possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic States until around 8 PM EDT.

...20Z Update...
The primary outlook change is to trim the Marginal Risk out of parts
of AR/MS/AL, in the wake of ongoing convection and extensive
outflow. Scattered damaging wind gusts remain possible into the
evening with ongoing storms across parts of the Mid Atlantic.
Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of NM into
west TX late this afternoon into the evening. See the previous
discussion below for more details, and MCD 1014 and 1015 for
information regarding the short-term severe threat across the
Ark-La-Miss region and parts of NC/VA.

..Dean.. 06/02/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022/

...Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva...
To the south/east of a front across the middle/upper Ohio Valley and
Pennsylvania, ample insolation is occurring per visible satellite
across southern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and West
Virginia/Virginia/Maryland including the Delmarva. Surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70F will yield around 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE even with relatively warm mid-level temperatures and poor
mid-level lapse rates (near 5C/km per 12z KIAD and KWAL observed
soundings). Moist/unstable air mass aside, thunderstorm development
and intensification this afternoon will be aided by an upstream MCV
and surface trough across the region in addition to orographic
influences. A moderately strong belt of winds aloft, particularly
across northern Virginia/Delmarva and northward, will support some
updraft rotation along with semi-organized small clusters. Isolated
damaging winds/tree damage should be the most co*mon hazard,
although some severe hail is also possible.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
A lingering slow-moving MCS/MCV will likely persist
east-southeastward toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity. Related forcing
for ascent and differential heating will influence downstream
thunderstorm development this afternoon with a moist/unstable air
mass with MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg. Damaging winds will be
possible with the strongest updrafts/downdrafts through
early/mid-evening.

...New Mexico and far southeast Colorado/far West Texas...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from central
New Mexico into far southeast Colorado this afternoon along the
western periphery of the southern Great Plains moisture plume that
has spread across the Upper Rio Grande Valley. Modest deep-layer
shear, but steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support a few
cells capable of isolated severe hail and wind. Convection will
largely weaken as it spreads east into the adjacent high plains
where low-level stratus will likely persist through much of today
and maintain MLCIN. There is some potential for a loosely organized
cluster to emanate east-southeast tonight across southeast New
Mexico towards parts of west Texas within the ribbon of greater
elevated buoyancy in the Permian Basin.