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Mesoscale Discussion 1014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Louisiana...adjacent
southeastern Arkansas and central/southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 021729Z - 022000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of vigorous thunderstorm development may persist
and gradually organize through mid afternoon, perhaps acco*panied by
increasing risk for strong downbursts and surface gusts by 3-5 PM
CDT.  It is still not clear that a severe weather watch will be
needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
possibility.

DISCUSSION...The intersection of a couple of remnant outflow
boundaries has beco*e the focus for a cluster of intensifying
renewed thunderstorm development, initially centered north/northeast
of Monroe LA.  This is displaced downstream of an apparent MCV
currently centered to the west/southwest of the Ark-La-Tex, within a
rather weak (10-15 kts) westerly deep-layer ambient flow regime.

However, inflow appears to be emanating from a seasonably moist
boundary layer destabilizing with continuing insolation, and
characterized by CAPE increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg.  Given this
potential instability, sustained further convective development,
upscale growth and intensification seems probable over the next few
hours.  As this occurs, the evolution of another substantive MCV
appears possible, gradually acco*panied by strengthening easterly to
northeasterly rear inflow and downdrafts, and eventually increasing
risk for at least localized potentially damaging surface gusts.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...SHV...

LAT...LON   31169000 31589178 31959206 32659178 33019140 33029014
            32908897 31169000