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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late afternoon
Friday through the evening over parts of the southern High Plains.

...High Plains...
A weak/flattened mid-level ridge over the Rockies will feature a
large area of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8.5 deg C/km) over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.  A couple of weak mid-level
disturbances are forecast to move through the ridge axis and move
across the northern half of NM and the northern Rockies during the
afternoon/evening.  A corridor of modest low-level moisture will
extend northward from the southern High Plains and beco*e
increasingly marginal with north extent.  In the low levels, a
decaying frontal zone over TX will beco*e more nebulous with time
and perhaps be modulated by convective outflow from Thursday. 
Isolated, widely spaced thunderstorms are forecast to initially
develop near higher terrain from MT southward through the southern
High Plains.  Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible with the
stronger cores.  During the early evening, additional storms are
forecast to develop mainly across the western TX Panhandle/eastern
NM as a cluster of storms is forecast to move east-southeast during
the evening.  Severe gusts will likely be the primary threat once
the convective cluster evolves and subsequently beco*es outflow
dominant.  

...Southeast...
A cold front will continue to push southward during the day across
the coastal plain of SC/NC and into central GA.  Strong heating and
a moist boundary layer will result in moderate buoyancy by early
afternoon from the Grand Strand into southern GA and inland from the
central Gulf Coast.  Although a mid-level trough will be
displaced well north of the region (associated large-scale ascent),
convergence along the front/sea breeze and heating will likely lead
to cap erosion by the early afternoon.  Several mainly disorganized
clusters are forecast to develop and move towards the coast.  Steep
low-level lapse rates and water-loaded downdrafts will support
strong to locally severe gusts (45-60 mph) with the more intense
cores.  The risk for wind damage will likely dissipate by early
evening.

...FL Keys...
An intensification of low-level wind fields is progged by model
guidance as a tropical convective cluster develops through Friday. 
Increasingly rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints near 75 deg
F) coupled with enlarging hodographs may result in a few transient
mesocyclones over the FL Straits and Keys Friday night.  Reference
the National Hurricane Center for the latest tropical information.

..Smith.. 06/02/2022