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Mesoscale Discussion 1011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern NM into northwest TX...the
TX Panhandle...and southwestern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 020245Z - 020445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail may occur with elevated thunderstorms
this evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this
evening to the north of a surface cold front. Some of this elevated
convection has shown sufficient intensity to support marginally
severe hail over the past hour or two. The presence of modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates evident on the 00Z sounding from
AMA, and sufficient moisture remaining above the shallow front, are
contributing to upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Strengthening
westerly flow through through the cloud-bearing layer in mid/upper
levels is fostering 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear, which is more
than sufficient for organized convection. Some of these elevated
thunderstorms have shown signs of being supercells, with an
associated threat for occasional severe hail. At this point, current
expectations are for this activity to remain elevated and pose
mainly a threat for isolated hail for the next couple of hours. One
exception may be a robust supercell in western north TX (Baylor
County TX at 0245Z) that is currently moving slowly southeastward
towards the surface front/outflow boundary. If this supercell can
beco*e surface based, it could pose a threat for severe/damaging
winds in addition to large hail. Regardless, current expectations
are for the overall severe threat to remain too isolated to justify
watch issuance.

..Gleason/Hart.. 06/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33440413 34180404 34850257 35210168 35350053 35199946
            34629847 33839796 32999810 32749878 32909943 33390002
            33640127 33290261 33150324 33220380 33440413