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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

...Synopsis...
Initially zonal mid-level flow will gradually beco*e more meridional
as a powerful Pacific jet deepens an approaching shortwave trough.
As the jet and trough dig across the Four Corners Monday, a deep
surface low will move eastward toward the southern High Plains. In
response to the strengthening flow aloft and strong surface cyclone,
surface southwesterly winds will increase substantially within an
already dry airmass. Volatile fuels and the strong winds/low
humidity will co*bine to support widespread high-end Critical fire
weather conditions across the southern High Plains.

...Southern Plains...
As the mid-level trough deepens in response to the advancing Pacific
jet, mid-level westerlies will gradually intensify over the
Southwest and southern High Plains. Deep mixing, enhanced by
orographic turbulence will aide in bolstering strong low-level
southwesterly winds from AZ eastward, across NM and into western
TX/OK. Ensemble and deterministic model soundings support high
confidence in widespread boundary-layer winds of 25-30 mph through
much of Monday afternoon. Stronger gusts may develop across western
portions of the Critical area as the main core of the upper jet
begins to overspread the High Plains later in the period. High
confidence also exists in very dry surface conditions given
downslope trajectories and a warm/well-mixed boundary layer. Minimum
RH values below 10% are expected to be widespread with local values
below 5% possible in the lee of the higher terrain where downsloping
will be maximized. With extremely dry fuels and ongoing drought
exacerbated by several preceding dry and windy days, high-end
Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across much of the
southern High Plains. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may
also materialize later in the period as strong wind gusts develop
beneath the stronger jet aloft. However, uncertainty remains
relatively high on the overlap of sustained 35+ mph winds and sub
10% RH within the areas of driest fuels.

...Central High Plains...
Similar to the southern High Plains, widespread strong winds and dry
surface conditions are expected beneath the deepening Great Basin
trough Monday. However, more southerly trajectories will likely
result in gradual moisture transport across the central High Plains
ahead of the deepening surface low. This may impact diurnal RH
somewhat casting some uncertainty on the coverage of sustained
Critical conditions. However, wind fields remain quite strong,
suggesting at least some fire weather threat is possible within dry
fuels. Elevated highlights will be maintained with the possibility
of an upgrade to Critical conditions in subsequent outlooks.

..Lyons.. 04/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...