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Mesoscale Discussion 1002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...Southeast NM into west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 011928Z - 012100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later
this afternoon into this evening. Very large hail and locally severe
wind gusts are expected to the primary threats. Watch issuance is
possible by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating is underway from far southeast
NM into west TX, south of an outflow-reinforced cold front
approaching the area from the north. Cumulus is increasing across
the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos, with recent attempts at
convective initiation north of Marfa, TX. Continued heating and
erosion of MLCINH will result in scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Initial activity may be focused over the higher
terrain of west TX and southeast NM, with additional development
near the southward-moving boundary. 

MLCAPE increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range and steep
low/midlevel lapse rates will support vigorous updrafts as storms
mature. While midlevel flow is rather weak, low-level southeasterly
flow veering to southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of
30-35 kt, sufficient for organized storms and possibly a few
supercells, given the strong instability. Very large hail is
expected to be the initial primary threat, in addition to isolated
downburst winds. Any sustained supercell may also pose a brief
tornado risk, though relatively weak low-level flow will tend to
limit this threat. Storm mergers may result in one or more clusters
capable of producing outflow winds of 60-80 mph, though the lack of
a substantial low-level jet will limit the potential for more
organized upscale growth. 

Watch issuance is possible by 21Z across some portion of the MCD
area in order to cover these threats.

..Dean/Kerr.. 06/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32460189 31030207 30550291 30280375 30400430 30660463
            31160480 32230476 32720458 33040352 33430206 33320185
            32460189