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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of isolated to widely scattered
damaging gusts are possible on Thursday for the Mid-Atlantic states.

...Synopsis...

An upper low will not move much over the northern Manitoba/western
Ontario vicinity on Thursday. However, an associated shortwave
trough initially over the upper Great Lakes will pivot east to the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast states through the period. The stronger belt
of westerlies associated with this trough will extend across
OH/PA/NJ into northern WV/VA/MD/DE. A moist boundary-layer beneath
modest mid/upper level flow will support scattered thunderstorm
clusters during the afternoon/evening ahead of a surface cold front.
The effective front/outflow will extend southwestward across parts
of KY/TN into the lower MS Valley. Additional thunderstorm clusters
will be possible in a moist/unstable but weakly sheared environment
across these areas.

Further west, the front/outflow will beco*e diffuse across TX into
the southern Rockies vicinity. Easterly upslope flow will transport
modest moisture into far west TX and the higher terrain of
south-central NM. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough will approach
the Pacific Northwest coast by afternoon, resulting in cooling aloft
and steepening lapse rates.

...Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

While low-level flow will remain weak, effective shear magnitudes
and increasing mid/upper level flow will support organized storm
clusters. Surface dewpoints in the 60s will aid in MLCAPE values
around 1000-1500 J/kg despite poor midlevel lapse rates.
Additionally, strong surface heating will allow surface temperatures
to warm into the 80s (to near 90 with southward extent toward the
Chesapeake Bay vicinity), leading to steep low-level lapse rates.
Current forecast soundings show inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles with DCAPE values around 1200+ J/kg. Furthermore, forecast
hodographs are rather straight and somewhat elongated. As a result,
thunderstorm clusters will have potential for producing strong,
damaging gusts (around 50-65 mph) and perhaps some hail (generally 1
inch diameter or less). Storms may initially develop near the Ohio
Valley by late morning and spread eastward across PA/NJ,
intensifying during the afternoon. Additional storm development is
expected during the afternoon over the higher terrain of WV, and in
the vicinity of a lee trough across VA, spreading east across the
Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the afternoon/early evening.

...Central Appalachians/Mid-South to eastern TX...

Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning from east TX
into the lower MS Valley along the leading edge of convective
outflow. These storms may re-intensify by late morning/early
afternoon as they shift into parts of LA/MS where surface dewpoints
in the low 70s and temperatures in the 80s will support strong
destabilization. Effective shear will remain modest, and may limit
overall severe potential, but isolated strong gusts will be possible
given steep low-level lapse rates.

Additional thunderstorm clusters will develop northeastward along
the frontal boundary across TN/KY. This activity will experience
weaker instability and modest shear but could still produce gusty
winds.

...Southern Rockies...

Modest moisture will filter westward on southeasterly low-level
upslope flow. Steep midlevel lapse rates and modest effective shear
will support loosely organized cells capable of hail and gusty
outflow winds. 

...Portions of central/northern Oregon...

An approaching upper shortwave trough will result in increasing
southwesterly flow across the region amid cool temperatures aloft
and steep midlevel lapse rates. While instability will remain
modest, generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE, isolated to scattered
organized cells will quickly lift northeast across the area. A
deeply-mixed boundary-layer will support strong gusts, while steep
midlevel lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs are
indicative of marginal hail potential.

..Leitman.. 06/01/2022