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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

A few minor adjustments were made to the ongoing forecast based on
the latest convection-allowing guidance. The forecast is otherwise
on track. The previous discussion follows with greater details.

..Wendt.. 06/01/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level shortwave ridging over the Southwest and Four Corners is
forecast to persist, but shift eastward under the influence of an
approaching Pacific trough. Within the relatively weak trough,
meager upper-level flow should keep synoptic surface winds light and
below fire weather criteria. While flow aloft will remain weak, the
increase in forcing for ascent from the approaching trough should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms within a
post-frontal upslope airmass across western/central NM into far
southern CO. Model soundings show relatively modest PWAT values and
dry low-level profiles supportive of isolated dry lightning strikes.
Area fuels remain receptive to ignitions despite the cooler
temperatures. Isolated Dry Thunder probabilities have been added
over the higher terrain of central and western NM and southern CO
were, the greatest potential for dry strikes and receptive fuels
overlap.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...