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Mesoscale Discussion 0999
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...Northern Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania...and
western New York.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 011700Z - 011830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will gradually increase through
the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...A few stronger storms have developed along a surface
front from southeast Michigan into southern Ontario and near Lake
Ontario. These storms are beneath stronger mid-level flow (~35
knots) as sampled by the DTX VWP. Farther south, mid-level flow is
currently very weak (per ILN/CLE VWP), and thus the convection
currently developing across northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania will likely be more single cell/less organized
initially. However, mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen
substantially through the afternoon and evening which should help
with storm organization. 

A more organized severe weather threat could materialize from both
of the following methods:
1. The ongoing storm cluster across southeast Michigan and
additional storms along the front in southern Canada grow upscale
and move east-southeastward. 
2. Scattered to numerous storm development in the uncapped warm
sector across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania gradually
organize as shear improves. 

Nonetheless, an organized severe weather threat is possible, with a
primary hazard of damaging wind gusts. Marginally severe hail will
also be possible with any stronger storms or transient supercell
structures.

..Bentley/Kerr.. 06/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...

LAT...LON   42428361 43138104 43337856 43607788 43917672 43357580
            42537537 41987530 41407666 40337968 40248236 40708289
            41158360 41808377 42428361