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Mesoscale Discussion 0993
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Areas affected...portions of northeastern MO...southeastern IA and
northwestern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 312322Z - 010045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few clusters of strong to severe storms will be possible
along and east of a slow moving cold front later this evening.
Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail appear to be the primary
threats. It remains unclear if a watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...As of 2320Z, late afternoon visible imagery showed some
enchantment to cumulus towers/weak thunderstorms along a slow moving
cold front from far northeastern MO into portions of southeastern
IA. Regional surface observations ahead of the developing convection
show a warm and moist airmass with surface TDs in the upper 60s to
low 70s F. Overlying the surface moisture, moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km were supporting around 2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Lingering mid-level flow is also aiding in 30-40 kt of
effective shear suggesting some storm organization is possible.
Within the favorable parameter space, if convection is able to be
maintained, more organized multi-cell clusters and perhaps some
transient supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and
isolated hail will be possible. It remains unclear if and how many
organized severe storms may develop owing to weak forcing for ascent
and lingering cloud cover. Conditions will be monitored for the
possibility of a weather watch should storms continue to develop and
organize.

..Lyons/Hart.. 05/31/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40019283 40669256 40929243 41519161 41579147 41829094
            42248992 42258973 42168939 41998892 41598902 40908952
            40049020 39489089 39379146 39319212 39489250 40019283