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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday for portions of the southern Great Plains and the lower
Great Lakes.  Large hail and severe/damaging gusts are the primary
hazards.

...Southern High Plains into the Ozarks...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing early
Wednesday morning from northern OK/southern KS eastward into the
Ozark Plateau.  As this activity gradually weakens during the
morning, strong differential heating to the south of the outflow
will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by mid
afternoon.  In association with a weak disturbance moving east from
CO into the lower MO Valley, a belt of strong mid-level flow (40-50
kt) will be relegated north over KS.  Weaker flow is progged farther
south in the southern Great Plains where effective shear 20-35 kt is
forecast---supporting organized storms.  Model guidance varies
--understandably given the weakly forced setup-- in storm coverage
across OK during the afternoon/early evening.  CAM guidance
indicates a severe cluster or two will likely evolve from near the
co*posite boundary over the TX South Plains/northwest TX.  Widely
scattered severe gusts and large hail are possible with the stronger
multicells and transient supercells.  The remnant storms/outflow may
eventually push into north TX by early Thursday morning.

...NY southwest into the OH Valley...
A mid-level ridge initially over the lower Great Lakes will flatten
as a speed max moves east from WI/MI to Ontario/Adirondacks by early
evening.  A front is forecast to push eastward across portions of
the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes during the period.  A weak
capping inversion will likely erode by midday due in part to diurnal
heating over western NY as a plume of 60s dewpoints protrudes
northeastward from the OH Valley into NY.  Scattered clusters of
storms will likely initiate on a pre-frontal windshift or the front
itself from NY southwestward into the OH Valley.  Unidirectional
westerly flow increasing in speed with height over NY will limit
hodograph size, but favor moderate storm motions and the risk for
strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) and perhaps marginally severe
hail.  Farther southwest over the OH Valley, isolated to widely
scattered damaging gusts are possible during the afternoon into the
early evening.

..Smith.. 05/31/2022