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Mesoscale Discussion 0986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Areas affected...Iowa eastern Nebraska and central/southern Kansas.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 294...

Valid 310239Z - 310345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 294 continues.

SUMMARY...c*nvective initiation along the surging cold front and
retreating dryline is expected to continue into central and southern
Kansas over the next hour. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the
primary threats. A replacement Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
issued for portions of the old Tornado Watch294.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 30 minutes, regional radar imagery showed
convective initiation was occurring along the surging cold front and
retreating dryline across portions of IA, southeastern NE and
northern KS. This trend should continue as strong frontal forcing
encounters an increasingly warm and moist boundary layer to the
east. Warm advection beneath a 60 kt low-level jet will provide
further support for rapid storm development and organization along
the front. The strong forcing will support a predominately linear
mode with a primary risk for strong wind gusts and isolated hail. A
tornado or two may also occur with any surges in the line given 0-1
km SRH of 300-400 M2/s2 and strong line normal shear. A replacement
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is being considered for portions of the
area.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/31/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...to*...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37089783 37029805 37019866 37109907 37329922 37629931
            37909921 38239889 38749777 39319697 40239625 41279544
            41969499 42289432 42349371 42199345 41899342 41619339
            41269342 40889364 40289395 39619457 38089592 37839623
            37559660 37229732 37089783