Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible along a narrow corridor this
evening from eastern Kansas northward into central Iowa, eastern
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. A few tornadoes, widespread wind
damage and large hail, some of which could be greater than 2 inches
in diameter, will be possible with the more intense storms. Wind
gusts above 65 knots will be possible in parts of eastern Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin.

...Eastern Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin...
The latest high-resolution radar from Minneapolis, Minnesota shows a
north-to-south intense line of storms across eastern Minnesota. This
line was located near an axis of moderate instability, with the RAP
showing MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This was in
agreement with the Minneapolis 00Z sounding which had MLCAPE near
1650 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 85 knots. 0-3 km storm relative
helicity was above 300 m2/s2 and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 8.0 C/km.
This environment will be favorable for severe storms over the next
few hours. The more intense line segments will be capable of
producing wind damage and large hail. A few tornadoes may also occur
with embedded rotating cells. The faster moving bowing segments
could produce wind gusts over 65 knots. Later this evening, the
severe threat will gradually start to decrease, as the line moves
over northwestern Wisconsin. However, a wind damage and large hail
threat could persist after midnight in areas that have sufficient
instability.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Iowa...
A well-developed dryline is located from western Iowa
south-southwestward into eastern Kansas and far northern Oklahoma.
To the east of the dryline, moderate instability is in place with
MLCAPE generally from 2000 to 3000 J/kg, according to the RAP. The
Topeka, Kansas 00Z sounding is located near the instability axis,
and has 0-6 km shear near 70 knots with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8.0
C/km. Steep lapse rates were also present in the mid-levels. This
thermodynamic and shear environment will be favorable for supercells
with wind damage and large hail this evening. The more intense
updrafts could produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in
diameter.

From this evening into the overnight period, the dryline is forecast
to retreat across central Kansas. Thunderstorm are expected to
develop to the east of the retreating dryline. Some of these storms
could be severe with a wind damage and large hail threat persisting
into the early morning hours. The strongest of supercells that
develop after midnight could be associated with a tornado threat and
potential for very large hail.

...Florida...
The latest radar imagery from Tampa Bay, Florida shows two clusters
of strong thunderstorms. The first is in northern Florida and the
second is close to Tampa Bay. Both clusters are located along an
axis of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints range from the
mid 60s to lower 70s F. This co*bined with MLCAPE around 1700 J/kg
and 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.0 C/km, evident on the Tampa Bay 00Z
sounding, will support a marginal wind damage threat for another
hour or so across parts of the western Florida Peninsula.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2022