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Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

CORRECTED FOR A FEW TYPOS

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late Tuesday
afternoon and evening in a corridor across parts of the Upper
Midwest and south central portions of the Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
As a blocking mid-level high gradually begins to beco*e more
prominent near/east of Hudson Bay, one deep mid-level low is
forecast to slowly dig near or offshore of northern New England
coastal areas and the Canadian Maritimes during this period.  At the
same time, models indicate that another low will begin to evolve
upstream, east of the Canadian Prairies into northwestern Ontario.

This latter development appears likely to include the consolidation
of one short wave trough digging southeastward from the Arctic
latitudes of interior northern Canada and an initially deep
mid-level low emerging from the northern U.S. Great Plains.  The
mid-level low migrating to the north of the international border
likely will be acco*panied by a broad, occluding and gradually
weakening surface  cyclone, which may approach the southwestern
shores of Hudson Bay by 12Z Wednesday.  

A significant cold front trailing the surface cyclone is forecast to
advance through the upper Great Lakes region and upper half of the
Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday night, while stalling across
southern portions of the central Great Plains as another more modest
mid-level low slowly accelerates east-northeastward out of the Great
Basin.  Models indicate that the front will probably be preceded by
a convectively generated surface boundary, initially extending
across parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Missouri Valley at
the outset of the period, when substantive remnants of overnight
convection may still be ongoing from parts of northeastern Kansas
through northern Missouri and southeastern Iowa.

This convective boundary may be in the process of beco*ing displaced
to the south of the stronger mid/upper westerlies.  However, the
boundary, particularly across the Upper Midwest, may remain near
west-southwesterly flow as strong as 30-50 kt in the 700-500 mb
layer.

...Lower Missouri Valley into Great Lakes..
Lingering precipitation and cloud cover associated with early day
convection may hinder destabilization, and it remains unclear
whether or not a substantive mesoscale convective vortex will emerge
from this convection and migrate northeastward toward the Great
Lakes region Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.  However, it
appears that a moistening boundary-layer (including surface dew
points increasing to near 70F) may beco*e characterized by moderate
large CAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg) with sufficient daytime heating.
 If (and where) this occurs, the environment may beco*e conducive to
increasing vigorous late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.  This
may include a few supercells initially, before tending to
consolidate into one or two upscale growing clusters which may pose
primarily a severe wind threat into Tuesday night.

...South central Great Plains...
South of the stalling front, confidence remains higher in a narrow
corridor of stronger boundary-layer destabilization in the presence
of at least modestly steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates. 
Although lower/mid tropospheric wind fields may beco*e fairly modest
in strength, the environment probably will beco*e conducive to
severe storms capable of producing large hail in earlier stages of
storm development, before slow moving activity beco*es more
widespread Tuesday evening.  On the southwestern flank of the storm
development, across the eastern Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma, a strengthening southerly nocturnal low-level jet could
contribute to a risk for a supercell or two capable of producing
tornadoes, before diminishing late Tuesday evening.

..Kerr.. 05/30/2022