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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from
Wisconsin southwestward into the lower Missouri Valley and into
parts of the southern High Plains mainly Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night.  There is a risk for large to very large hail, severe
gusts 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A powerful mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes
will move into central Ontario by early evening.  An upstream
disturbance over the Great Basin will move little while a belt of
strong mid to upper-level flow extends northeastward from the Four
Corners across the central High Plains and into WI.  A surface low
initially near the MN/Ontario border will develop northeast, as a
cold front pushes southeastward across portions of the western Great
Lakes/central Great Plains and beco*es positioned from the mid MS
Valley into the northern TX Panhandle.  A dryline will extend
southward from the front over the TX Panhandle
through the TX South Plains.

...Upper Great Lakes southwestward to MO/KS...
Lingering thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at the start of the
period over parts of northeast KS into MO near the terminus of a
south-central Plains LLJ.  Isolated hail/wind could acco*pany these
storms before weakening by mid morning.  A surface front will be the
focus for renewed thunderstorm development on Tuesday afternoon as
the mid-level disturbance moving into Ontario beco*es increasingly
displaced from the area.  Strong heating near the front and surface
dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s in WI to the lower 70s over
eastern KS will lead to a weakened cap and scattered thunderstorms
developing by the mid-late afternoon.  Large buoyancy is forecast on
the southern fringe of stronger mid- to high-level winds from KS
into the mid MS Valley.  A mix of supercell and severe multicell
modes will be capable of mainly a wind/hail risk.  Stronger
low-level shear is progged over WI and could lead to some
supercell-tornado potential.  The hail/wind risk will likely linger
well into the evening over KS and western MO as a few thunderstorm
clusters evolve from the lower MO Valley into southeast KS.

...Northern OK and northwest TX...
More widely spaced thunderstorm coverage is forecast late Tuesday
afternoon into the evening co*pared to areas farther northeast
(i.e., KS into MO).  Strong heating and very steep lapse rates will
yield 3000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon.  Strong deep-layer shear
is forecast over the TX Panhandle where a supercell convective mode
is forecast.  Large to very large hail will be the primary threat
through the early evening.  A tornado is also possible over the
eastern TX Panhandle prior to dusk as low-level flow enlarges the
hodograph before CINH beco*es too large.  A cluster or two will
likely evolve during the evening across the TX Panhandle and
northern OK.  The risk for severe gusts may increase during the
evening into the overnight as cold pools organize within an
environment featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates.  

...FL Peninsula...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the
day in response to strong heating and an active east-coast sea
breeze.  Relatively cool 500 mb temperatures (-11 deg C) and a moist
boundary layer will yield moderate buoyancy by midday.  Weak shear
will favor brief but vigorous pulse thunderstorms capable of
marginally severe hail and localized strong to severe gusts (50-60
mph).

..Smith.. 05/30/2022