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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT
BASIN...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

...Synopsis...
Western US troughing will continue to amplify across the Southwest
as a significant shortwave feature within this broader southwesterly
flow ejects eastward. Forecast to reach the Rockies late Sunday,
lift from the trough will deepen a lee cyclone across the High
Plains as a cold front stalls across central Great Basin. Widespread
strong surface winds are expected ahead of the trough from the
southern Great Basin to the High Plains. The strong winds will
overlap with a warm and very dry airmass supporting widespread
critical fire weather conditions Sunday. 

...Southern Great Basin and Southeast...
40-50 kt mid-level flow and a deepening lee cyclone will once again
promote a significant diurnal increase in southwesterly low-level
flow across much of the Southwest. 20-25 mph surface winds,
strongest along and south of a stalled front across the southern
Great Basin, will overlap with a very dry and warm surface airmass
characterized by 10-15% RH. Widespread critical fire weather
conditions are again expected within very dry and drought-stressed
fuels. Localized extremely critical conditions may also develop
across portions of northwestern NM immediately ahead of the
mid-level southwesterly jet. Aided by downward momentum transfer and
terrain influences, hi-res ensemble guidance shows some potential
for surface winds greater than 30 mph overlapping with sub 10%
surface humidity. While limited in spatial and temporal overlap,
strong winds and volatile fuel states suggest higher-end fire
weather concerns are possible. 

...Southern High Plains...
With ascent from the aforementioned mid-level wave moving over the
Rockies, a strengthening lee low and surface dryline will promote
strong southwesterly surface winds across much of the southern and
central High Plains. Downslope winds and warm surface temperatures
should easily support widespread elevated and critical fire weather
conditions from eastern NM, through the Panhandles and into
southeastern CO where fuels remain quite dry. Stronger gusts aided
by terrain may also support localized extremely critical conditions,
though coverage is uncertain.

Farther north, surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% should
support elevated fire weather conditions across northern and central
CO. Moisture return moving west toward the higher terrain may also
support a few high-based thunderstorms later in the afternoon. While
not expected to reach coverage requirements for Isolated Dry Thunder
Area, a few lightning strikes will be possible within dry fuels near
the cold front.

..Lyons.. 05/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...