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Mesoscale Discussion 0938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Areas affected...Eastern SC into central NC and southern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 271821Z - 271945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm redevelopment is possible this afternoon,
with a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado. Watch
issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convection, storms have
redeveloped across northeast SC this afternoon, with building
cumulus noted elsewhere across eastern SC into central NC. Moderate
midlevel flow and deep-layer shear still remains over the area, as
MLCAPE recovers into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Some organized
cells/clusters are possible as storms mature through the afternoon.
Locally damaging wind will likely be the primary threat, though
marginal hail cannot be ruled out with any sustained discrete
storms. Low-level flow is generally not as strong as this morning,
though favorable low-level moisture and modest low-level shear may
support a brief tornado threat as well. Watch issuance will be
possible this afternoon, if observational trends support the threat
of multiple severe storms.

..Dean/Thompson.. 05/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   32938049 34438000 35347956 36147922 36837876 36967793
            36927738 36187748 34957789 34307842 33407932 32777984
            32578019 32938049