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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for wind damage and
possibly a couple tornadoes are expected to develop today from the
Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic. Severe wind gusts will
also be possible in parts of the northern High Plains.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/New York/New England...
An upper-level low will move east-northeastward across the Ohio
Valley today. Ahead of the system, flow will be southwesterly at
mid-levels across much to the Eastern U.S. At the surface, a
pre-frontal trough will develop to the east of the Appalachian crest
today, as moisture advection takes place to the east of the trough.
Surface dewpoints should be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F from
the eastern Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic. Elevated
storms or bands of rain may be ongoing at the start of the period
along some sections of the Eastern Seaboard. Areas that remain
somewhat clear of morning convection, should be able to heat up
sufficiently for moderate destabilization.

The latest model forecasts develop two corridors of moderate
instability by midday. The first is forecast in eastern Virginia and
Maryland, with the second located from southeast Georgia to central
North Carolina. These two corridors will likely be favorable for
isolated damaging wind gusts associated with multicell line
segments. Supercells will also be possible, mainly from
north-central North Carolina northward into southeastern
Pennsylvania, where strong deep-layer shear will be present. A
low-level jet of approximately 35 to 45 knots is forecast to move
across Virginia during the day. This should increase low-level shear
enough for a tornado threat with any supercells that can develop. 
The tornado threat could extend north-northeastward across the
Mid-Atlantic near the axis of the stronger low-level flow.

Further north-northeast into New York and northern New England, an
axis of weak instability will develop during the day. Surface
heating and strong large-scale ascent, associated with the
approaching system, will be favorable for thunderstorm development
in the central and northern Appalachians. Some of the storms will
move eastward into the lower elevations during the early afternoon,
where instability could a bit greater. Also, strong deep-layer shear
could offset the weak instability enough for a marginal wind-damage
threat in areas that heat up sufficiently. Storms that interact with
a warm front in northern New England may also have a marginal
wind-damage threat.

...Northern High Plains...
A shortwave ridge will move eastward today across the northern
Plains, as west-southwesterly flow at mid-levels beco*es established
over the Intermountain West. Within this flow, a subtle shortwave
trough is forecast to move east-northeastward toward the northern
High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
ahead of the shortwave trough, in an area of weak destabilization
from northern Wyoming into southeastern Montana. As this convection
moves eastward and grows upscale, a wind-damage threat is expected
to develop. The line segment should be relatively fast-moving,
affecting parts of southeast Montana, southwest North Dakota and
northwest South Dakota by late afternoon. Although somewhat
conditional, a few very strong wind gusts of greater than 65 knots
could acco*pany the strongest part of the line segment. The threat
could impact parts of the central Dakotas, before weakening during
the early evening as instability decreases across the region.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/27/2022