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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Ohio and
adjacent portions of northeast Oregon and Idaho on Thursday.  Severe
gusts and large hail are the primary severe hazards.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low initially centered over western MO will move east to
IN by early Friday morning.  An elongated area of low pressure over
the mid MS Valley/Great Lakes regions will beco*e less defined over
the southern Great Lakes as the primary low develops into Quebec. 
An acco*panying cold front will push eastward across the lower MS
Valley and Mid South.  

Farther west, a mid-level ridge over the Great Basin/northern
Rockies will shift eastward as a mid-level speed max moves into the
interior Pacific Northwest by late afternoon and into the northern
Rockies late.

...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
Nestled in between the mid-level low over MO and a subtropical
mid-level ridge over the Gulf Stream, deep-layer southerly flow will
gradually intensify during the day.  Scattered showers/storms are
probably from parts of the Mid South northward into the lower OH
Valley during the morning.  Pockets of heating via cloud breaks will
lead to moderate destabilization across parts of upper OH Valley. 
Models suggest a thunderstorm band or several
north-northeastward-moving clusters will develop by early afternoon
as a very weak cap erodes.  Multicells capable of isolated severe
gusts resulting in widely scattered wind damage seems most plausible
across central/eastern OH.  Other strong to locally severe storms
are possible farther north into Lower MI and in closer proximity to
the mid-level low during the afternoon.  

...Interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies...
A lead disturbance will move from the OR coast into the northern
Rockies during the period ahead of a more prominent mid-level trough
located to the west of the WA Coast.  Steep mid-level lapse rates
and strengthening flow in the mid-levels (around 50 kt at 500 mb)
will contribute to storm organization potential.  As large-scale
ascent increases during the afternoon coupled with strong heating,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
in central and eastern OR and move northeast.  Long hodographs will
favor hail with the stronger cores and severe gusts will be possible
with the more intense downdrafts.  This activity will likely spread
into ID and MT during the evening with a lingering risk for mainly
gusts into portions of the northern Rockies.

...Southeast...
Model guidance continues to yield a plethora of potential forecast
scenarios for Thursday.  Confidence is relatively high a
thunderstorm band will move eastward along the central Gulf Coast
and affect portions of southern AL and the FL Panhandle.  It remains
uncertain whether some of this convection continues into the
afternoon or dissipates during the morning.  Needless to say, a very
moist airmass will be in place across the Southeast with upper 60s
to lower 70s surface dewpoints.  Models continue to indicate strong
southerly 850 mb flow over AL/western GA during the afternoon/early
evening as mid-level flow increases overhead.  Clusters of scattered
storms will likely develop or rejuvenate on earlier convective
outflow with damaging gusts seemingly being the primary hazard.

..Smith.. 05/25/2022