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Mesoscale Discussion 0903
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Areas affected...Southwest into North-Central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...

Valid 242149Z - 242345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across ww269, especially
across western portions of the watch over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating immediately south of the front
has contributed to substantial buoyancy across the Edwards Plateau
into central TX, where surface-3km lapse rates are now between 8-9.5
C/km. Scattered severe thunderstorms have evolved along the dryline
from northern Val Verde County to near SJT. One significant
supercell has matured just downstream along the cold front over
southern Coleman County and this storm will likely track along the
boundary across southern Brown into southern co*anche County over
the next 2hr. Aside from very large hail capabilities, some local
tornado threat may be noted with any supercell that tracks along the
boundary. With time, approaching speed max will encourage an
upward-evolving cluster of storms to spread into the northwestern
portions of ww269. At that point, a forward propagating MCS will
likely begin spreading toward central TX.

..Darrow.. 05/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29390169 31280169 33849544 31969544 29390169